Rain is falling. And it’s not a one-off event. Let’s take a closer look at what this rain represents.

Yesterday and today early morning, New York / New Jersey has been battered by heavy rainfall. Streets in NY and NJ are submerged, subway operations delayed, and countless small businesses have been forced to close. Citizens watching the news witness these repeated flooding events, yet this is far from a temporary disruption.

Research and long-term observation show that New York faces increasingly frequent and intense threats from flooding, land subsidence, and rising sea levels. These hazards are not just weather problems—they are long-term issues reshaping the very structure of the city and the lives of its residents.

New York, including lower Manhattan, is sinking at an average rate of 1–2mm per year, primarily due to the immense weight of its high-rise buildings. In densely built areas, this rate can be more than double the average, with over 770 million tons of building weight pressing down on the ground.

On top of this, climate-driven sea level rise accelerates subsidence, further increasing flood risks during hurricanes and heavy rains. Since 1950, sea levels around New York have risen by approximately 23 cm, and projections suggest a potential rise of up to 99 cm by 2080.

Past events provide stark warnings. Hurricane Sandy (2012) caused immense damage, including roughly $70 billion in economic losses, subway flooding, and power outages for thousands of households. Experts predict that such severe storm surges may occur once every five years, and annual rainfall could increase 5–13% by the 2080s.

If sea level rise and land subsidence occur simultaneously, we are not merely facing temporary disruptions; the problem becomes permanent. Land may effectively disappear from certain neighborhoods, surpassing the impact of even Hurricane Sandy.

By 2080, portions of New York City could be submerged. Areas most at risk include southern Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, and the lower sections of Manhattan. An estimated 1–2 million residents could face significant property damage.

In this scenario, relying solely on existing city infrastructure will no longer ensure safety. A fundamental, innovative approach to urban design is essential.

The first solution is a Floating City. These floating residential and commercial spaces would accommodate residents from flood-prone areas. Applying the 18-Minute City design principle, essential functions such as housing, education, healthcare, commerce, and recreation would all be within walking or cycling distance.

At the same time, stable, non-submerging areas would maintain the functions of traditional New York City, acting as social and economic hubs. By connecting the Floating City with the existing city through integrated transport, power, communications, and disaster response systems, we can maintain social, economic, and cultural linkages.

This hybrid urban approach goes beyond floating buildings. It incorporates community and recreational spaces, cultural programs, and mental well-being considerations, enhancing both quality of life and urban resilience.

New York can no longer survive by relying on past methods. In a world of recurring floods and climate change, the complementary design of Floating Cities and existing urban areas is essential.

Hybrid urban planning that ensures resident safety, maintains city functions, and secures long-term social and economic sustainability represents the future New York we must envision and prepare for.